The fresh Israeli war on Lebanon, with thinly-veiled American prodding and backing, invokes old memories of Vietnam and Cuba, and new memories from Iraq and Afghanistan. All those memories are not good for Israel.

In Vietnam, a half a million strong American expeditionary force could not challenge the theory that guerillas are like fish swimming in a pool full of other fish. The Americans attempted but failed to drain the pool, and eventually they accepted a humiliating defeat and gave up their Vietnam adventure.

In Cuba a wise American president, JFK, negotiated a half-humiliating solution to a potentially disastrous missile crisis by accepting the Soviet terms including a promise not to attack Cuba. Cuba survives as a living symbol of defiance against its mighty neighbor.

Iraq and Afghanistan proved much easier to conquer by deploying superior military forces and technology, but such superiority is proving useless in maintaining an occupation, much like the case with Vietnam. Israel had a similar experience with its pre-May 2000 occupation of Southern Lebanon which ended with a humiliating retreat under the pounding of Hizbullah.

American advice to the Israeli government, consisting mostly of ‘green’ politicians, ignores both the American experience with Cuba and Israel’s own experience with Lebanon. Had Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq bordered on the American sub-continent, American citizens would have certainly experienced the pains of war. America immorally ignores the pains of September 11 when it plays, directly or indirectly, a hand in bringing similar pains on innocent civilians in Lebanon at the hands of Israel.

Israel is being hit by Hizbullah in retaliation for the Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Israel’s guns and jet fighter planes mercilessly kill innocent Lebanese civilians by the dozens and destroy scarce Lebanese infra structure, and, in return, its innocent citizens get a taste of the pains of war. There is no question that Israel holds mightier weapons, but this can only help in inflicting more casualties on the Lebanese civilians. What difference does it make if the ratio of Lebanese casualties to Israeli casualties is two or even three? At the end many Israelis will needlessly suffer just like the Lebanese victims of Israel’s wanton aggression.

If one tries to construct a similar ratio on the economic front, the inevitable finding will be that, in absolute numbers and perhaps even relatively speaking, the Israeli economy will suffer twice or three times the Lebanese economic suffering caused by the Israeli invasion.

It is a big waste by all measures, and another milestone in the demise of the international rule of law at the hands of Israel and the United States of America. The Israeli big stick, with the backing of the United States, has so far proven useless in hitting inexistent military targets of phantom guerilla forces that are not burdened by heavy equipment and military strategies that can only apply to classical warfare with classical armies, classically armed and deployed. At the end, the invasion of Lebanon will not only fail but will result in another humiliating back down by Israel. That is if Israel does not suffer a resounding military defeat.

It is not yet too late for Israel and its American sponsors to reconsider and to apply the historic lessons of America's military ventures, at least the lessons from Cuba and Vietnam, and Israel’s own Lebanese lesson from the era that ended in May 2000.