Parliamentary elections in Lebanon Sunday reconfirmed the prevailing balance of power among the country's sectarian factions. This is a good thing insofar as both the winners and losers had good reasons to worry about any new balance of power.

The great fear that hovers over both camps - the victorious March 14 coalition of Sunni, Christian, and Druze parties as well as the opposition comprised of the Shi'ite parties Hezbollah and Amal along with a Christian faction led by former general Michel Aoun - is that Lebanon's unique political compact may be torn asunder at any moment. That compact is based on a constitutional apportioning of parliamentary seats and ministerial posts along sectarian lines. Not only does this system represent an egregious version of identify politics; it is based on outdated demographic realities from the last census taken - in 1932.

Each community's anxieties about losing influence or being deprived of its fair share are compounded by another destructive factor: the constant meddling of foreign powers. In the recent campaign, outside interference was manifest in the influx of Saudi funds for the March 14 coalition and Iranian cash for Hezbollah.

The unforgotten national trauma that haunts Lebanon's political factions and sectarian communities is the memory of the long civil war of 1975 to 1991. Then as now, other countries exploited Lebanon's internecine conflicts, playing out their regional enmities through proxies on Lebanese soil. Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, the PLO, Libya, France, the United States - they and others played a part in helping the Lebanese rip apart the tapestry of their richly endowed, multiethnic and religiously diverse society.

So it may be that Hezbollah leaders are not unhappy to have their coalition take only 57 of 128 seats in Parliament. Had the Hezbollah-led coalition won a majority and tried to form a government, it might have had to govern without the Sunnis and Christians of the March 14 coalition, and without financial assistance from the Gulf Arab states, Europe, and America. It would also risk making all of Lebanon the target of any Israeli retaliation for a rocket or a kidnapping traced to Hezbollah.

The winning March 14 coalition, with 68 seats, now has a tenuous but democratic mandate to pursue a policy of independence from meddling neighbors, and to pursue economic development with aid and investment from both the Gulf states and the West. The new Lebanese government will need two things above all: participation or at least cooperation from Hezbollah; and some form of American understanding with Iran that reduces regional tensions. It is Lebanon's fate to be the canary in the coal mine of Mideastern geopolitics.